The Real Story…
News and commentary about the real estate market and related topics.
Dave Parrish, ABR®, CRSA, CSP, GRI, ePRO®,REALTOR ®, RE/MAX
The opinions expressed here are my own and don’t necessarily represent those of RE/MAX International.
All Markets Not Equal… Real Estate is Always Local…
Seems that we all get our news from one of the major national news syndicates… Who have turned news into entertainment and seem to be focused on reporting the extremes that make headlines… that garner attention for larger readership/viewership and thus ad revenue. The real story is that all markets are not the same… not all markets are to remain down for the coming year.
Best Housing Markets Forecast in 2011
| Best Markets for 2011
|
||
| Rank | City | Forecast |
| 1. | Portland, ME | 3.6% |
| 2. | Kansas City, KS | 3.5% |
| 3. | Tri-Cities, WA | 3.4% |
| 4. | Omaha, NE | 3.3% |
| 5. | Fargo, ND | 3.3% |
| 6. | New Orleans, LA | 3.2% |
| 7. | Iowa City, IA | 3.2% |
| 8. | Columbia, MD | 3.1% |
| 9. | Bellevue, NE | 3.1% |
| 10. | Bismarck, ND | 3.1% |
| 11. | Bethesda, MD | 3.0% |
| 12. | Silver Spring, MD | 3.0% |
| 13. | Lewiston, ME | 3.0% |
| 14. | Metairie, LA | 2.9% |
| 15. | Austin, TX | 2.8% |
| 16. | El Paso, TX | 2.8% |
| 17. | Overland Park, KS | 2.8% |
| 18. | Rapid City, SD | 2.7% |
| 19. | Boulder, CO | 2.7% |
| 20. | Sioux City, SD | 2.6% |
| 21. | Topeka, KS | 2.6% |
| 22. | Cedar Rapids, IA | 2.6% |
| 23. | Des Moines, IA | 2.6% |
| 24. | Davenport, IA | 2.5% |
| 25. | Wichita, KS | 2.3% |
The best housing markets forecast for 2011 encompass a large number of markets from the Mid-West and upper North-Eastern U.S. As the housing recovery moves forward in earnest in many areas of the nation, the numbers below aren’t in double-digits. But the appreciation or housing values that these markets are forecast to experience in the next year is at healthy levels, and may have a chance of retaining its upside for an extended period of time as the housing recovery develops.
For a time government stimulus money combined with lower home prices and historically low mortgage rates to drive home sales and prices in some areas of the country higher, but the so-called second leg in the housing market downturn is underway in many regions of the U.S.
Led by fourteen states, the worst 25 forecast housing markets are projected to decrease in average values in 2011 as the nation grows more accustom to a new sort of economy with less bank lending, more restrictive credit requirements, higher unemployment and social change. However, the rapid pace of deflation has eased from both 2010 and 2009.
The improving forecast demonstrates that housing markets are moving towards stabilizing, but still have a long way to go before reaching a balance. Record setting bank assisted short sales, foreclosures and an over-supply of inventory are hurting the under-lying economy, and pressuring home prices.
| Worst Markets for 2011 | ||
| Rank | City | Forecast |
| 1. | Bend, OR | − 11.5% |
| 2. | Las Vegas, NV | − 10.8% |
| 3. | Atlantic City, NJ | − 10.8% |
| 4. | Miami, FL | − 10.8% |
| 5. | Medford, OR | − 10.5% |
| 6. | Manhattan, NY | − 10.3% |
| 7. | Ocean City, NJ | − 10.3% |
| 8. | East Providence, RI | − 9.5% |
| 9. | Jacksonville, FL | − 9.3% |
| 10. | Orange Beach, AL | − 9.3% |
| 11. | Providence, RI | − 9.2% |
| 12. | Honolulu, HI | − 9.1% |
| 13. | Montgomery, AL | − 9.0% |
| 14. | Wilmington, DE | − 8.9% |
| 15. | Naples, FL | − 8.9% |
| 16. | Macon, GA | − 8.6% |
| 17. | Newark, DE | − 8.6% |
| 18. | Decatur, IL | − 8.5% |
| 19. | Henderson, NV | − 8.5% |
| 20. | Hilo, HI | − 8.5% |
| 21. | Detroit, MI | − 8.4% |
| 22. | Greenwich, CT | − 8.4% |
| 23. | Phoenix, AZ | − 8.3% |
| 24. | Chicago, IL | − 8.3% |
| 25. | Atlanta, GA | − 8.2% |
Worst Housing Markets Forecast in 2011
Hammered by homeowners who can no longer afford to make payments on their properties, Bend, Oregon leads the list on the worst 25. Two gambling centers, Las Vegas, Nevada and Atlantic City, New Jersey follow where millions of investors made their bets on real estate instead of putting their money down on the table without even knowing it as bankers gambled their assets leveraging their loan portfolios as high as 40 to 1.
There is no one story. For each of these markets there is an individual story… a unique set of circumstances that causes these projections. Further, within each of these markets there are other stories… other conditions that are missed even at this seemingly “detailed” analysis. For there are neighborhoods within each of these cities that have brighter outlooks; and yes to be sure, there are neighborhoods with truly dismal outlooks. Each must be examined independently to know the real story and to determine if and how those fortunes can be improved… how they are likely to change.
So I repeat, there is no one story… The tendency to over simplify may sell ads… it might even lead us toward greater hope… but it does not offer the real story and information on which the wise would make decisions.
May the market be with you.
